I don't know if anybody has noticed but I recently tried to cut down on the number of accident articles posted in the news section of the site. Scanning the news, there are so many and after a while they all start to read the same. If I posted every one, it would look like everybody and their brother is dying out there and the stats show that it just isn't true.

I do however post articles about tragedy if it could be used for learning or teaching. If it just a death article, it's probably going to be a no-go.

On that note, I recently was following a accident that took place a couple weeks ago in Maine where two paddlers went out and only one came home. It was interesting to read because the survivor (Brandon Andrusic) was able to get to an island and spent the night there before being able to summon help. The decision to stay on the island for the night caused some controversy and there was some negative chatter about his decisions.

Brandon recently wrote a letter into the Portland Press Herald telling his version of the story. I posted a copy of it for you to read and learn from it. It gives some interesting analysis into an accident that I know from first hand experience, can go sour in less than three seconds.

Thanks for Leif for the link to the letter.

[Click "Read More" for the letter]

As I have written about before, I regularly paddle with a pretty hard-core group of men and woman paddlers. We paddle all winter and normally ice doesn't get in our way. This winter has been a weird one as we all have been so busy, we haven't had a lot of paddle time.

This weekend has what we have started to call it the Jinx weekend. For the past three years, this is the weekend that if something is going to go wrong, it will. We have had several accidents and for us that means actually coming out of our boats in surf and usually around rocks. Normally it is nothing to serious (a quick contact tow and then lots of teasing) but once it was a little serious (Lots of good learning afterwards followed by even more teasing).

My friend Sean recently sent out this note to the gang and I couldn't help but post it here (with his permission of course)...

Hello all. I'm looking forward to getting out this weekend either on Saturday or Sunday (hopefully both). I've been doing some regression analysis on a variety of factors related to the upcoming jinx weekend. Here is what I have concluded:

1. THE JINX WEEKEND - Based on historical data the third weekend in April (approximately April 21 through 24) is a time when someone in our group (which I have defined as myself, John, Erik, Liz and David) is likely to capsize.

2. THE DOUBLE JEOPARDY CLAUSE - If you have capsized already on April 21, 22, 23 or 24 in the Toronto harbour area you are unlikely to capsize again. (Erick capsized in 2005 but not 2006 and Liz, John and Sean (in that order) capsized in 2006 but did not capsize in 2005). This data suggests that David is at the highest risk of capsize this coming weekend. I am at the lowest risk. Liz and John are low/medium risk and Erik is at a medium risk.

3. THE EVEN NUMBER FEMALE RULE - Based on historical data around the capsizes, the safest configuration of a paddling group is to have even numbered paddlers with at least one female on the water. This configuration produces the least consequence capsizes. All male groups on the water tend to be associated with the most significant capsizes and odd number paddling groups are the most dangerous ( i.e. Erik, Sean and David paddled in April of 2005 with Erik capsizing in rocks and in 2006 John, Erik and Sean were on the water as mayhem ensued).

4. ROCKS - In all circumstances it is dangerous to be near rocks. All April capsizes in 2006 and 2007 have been related to paddling near rocks.

5. THE APRIL NOR'EASTER - 2005 and 2006 capsizes have occured when a nor'easter arrived in western lake Ontario on a weekend. Historical data suggests it is best to avoid these.

That's the type of data analysis everybody should be doing...

So this is the 4th anniversary of the Jinx weekend. What am I going to do about it? I'm getting out of Dodge. I'm flying out to Victoria to do some paddling and meet with a client about the new Trade Association of Paddlesports and West Coast Sea Kayak Symposium websites that I have been working on. That's what has been keeping me off the water all winter!

It's funny about risk. We spend so much time focusing on being safe while being out on the water. We plan out the day, tell a friend where we are going (hopefully), wear a pfd, and practice rescues. All because we feel that if we didn't then we would be unsafe and that would be risky.

I'm not knocking it at all. Keep doing it. The funny thing is that I often see these same people who spend a lot of time minimize the risks on the water and completely forget about the statistically dangerous risk of just getting to the put-in. Driving there is way more dangerous then your entire day trip.

I'm still amazed at the number of people who don't wear seatbelts. I don't want to sound like your mother but...

You need to read this blog write-up. Novelist Jim Macdonald - who is also a paramedic, wrote a stark grisly piece on why you should wear your seatbelt. Yes, it is graphic.

I saw this photo today in an article about a kayak rescue on Lake Washington, Seattle. It is was taken from a helicopter's video footage right after the rescue. Two summers ago I interview a search and rescue operator about what kayakers can do to make rescues easier for SAR techs. One of the things he mentioned is to add some colour to white hulls as they usually just look like a whitecap in the wind.

Do you have experience with SAR? Let us know what you think. Is it an accurate statement?

I found an interesting article that talks holding eye contact with hysterical citizens as one of the most effective methods police officers can use to calm people down.

It completely makes sense of course if you stop to think about it. I remember one time paddling out with a group of friends. A member of the group froze up when we came to some chop and she promptly flipped. Trying to get her to calm down wasn't working until I got her to look at me in the face. That took her eyes off the waves and she calmed down right away.